Nebraska vs. St. John’s Odds
St. John’s added two key players via the transfer portal — David Jones (DePaul) and Andre Curbelo (Illinois) — to help boost its team’s expectations for 2022-23.
The Red Storm come into Thursday night’s game against Nebraska at 3-0 while owning the sixth-fastest tempo in college basketball. They average only 13.7 seconds per possession, while Nebraska averages 18.
That said, Nebraska has the 69th-ranked Adjusted Tempo (KenPom). This comes without Derrick Walker, who has been day-to-day for some time.
The Cornhuskers do not have much of a match for Joel Soriano on the block, who stands at 6-foot-11. With no Walker, this Nebraska team will rely on essentially only its backcourt for points and rebounding production.
This opens up the key for teams like St. John’s, which has a reliable post option.
Photo via CBB Analytics
That said, Nebraska is shooting 55.4% on 2-pointers and over 34% on 3s in two games. The Red Storm are by far the best team they’ve played, but the Cornhuskers have an efficient offense for a team with virtually zero frontcourt.
Since Nebraska has the offensive artillery and nothing to stop an incredibly fast team like St. John’s, expect this game to go over.
Sam Griesel was a phenomenal addition to the Huskers from North Dakota State. Juwan Gary (Alabama) and Emmanuel Bandoumel (SMU) compliment him well.
At the moment, Blaise Keita and Gary will be tasked with locking down Soriano. Keita stands at seven-foot, but he only logs an average of 18 minutes per game.
St. John’s does have a plethora of issues on the defensive end. At the moment, it’s allowing a 3-point percentage of 33%, so Nebraska should be ready to shoot.
The Red Storm are allowing 42% of opponent’s points from beyond the arc. Grisel shot over 37% last season at NDSU. He will bounce back from a tough start from deep.
CJ Wilcher shot over 40% the last two seasons. Bandoumel shot over 36% from outside last season, and Keisei Tominaga is a good, shoot-first option off the bench.
Since the guard game is a little hit-and-miss for the Red Storm defensively, Nebraska will be able to score outside.
Nebraska’s defense is even worse. It’s allowing opponents to shoot 37% from 3-point range and 49.3% from inside the arc. It ranks 214th in eFG% on defense, and its two opponents have been Maine and Nebraska Omaha. The Red Storm will score with ease.
For one, the Johnnies are shooting over 40% from outside on the young season.
Montez Mathis, Jones, Dylan Addae-Wusu and AJ Storr have been great contributors via the deep ball. Nebraska also is giving up over 40% of its points from outside, so look for these names to make a dent on the scoreboard.
The Red Storm is also shooting over 75% from the strike as a team. Posh Alexander, Jones and Curbelo are the usual suspects in this part of the game.
Even if Nebraska does not foul much, it will struggle with these three as it focuses on the height of Soriano. When they have the ability to drive and kick the ball like this, Nebraska will not be able to stop them:
3rd straight impressive game from David Jones last night. Confident saying that people should 100% be keeping an eye on him. The handles & first step w/ his size & strength is a really intriguing combination if the shooting stays consistent. Has had solid passing flashes as well pic.twitter.com/yJUjDM2VFz
— Zach Milner (@ZachMilner13) November 16, 2022
Nebraska vs. St. John’s Betting Pick
Take the over in this game. Both teams are far too fast-paced to go under, and Nebraska has very little internally to limit St. John’s on the glass and via the drive.
There are enough pieces on both teams to hit the deep shot, and as the first few games have shown, each will give up 3-pointers. Take the over at 158.5 (-110), and play it at 160.5 (-110).
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