Illinois vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for Week 12 (Dominant Defenses Make for a Close Game)

Illinois vs Michigan Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for Week 12 (Dominant Defenses Make for a Close Game)

2022 NCAA College Football Game
Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3, 4-3 Big Ten) vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten)
Date: Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022
Time: 12 p.m. ET
Venue: Michigan Stadium—Ann Arbor, MI
Coverage: ABC

Week 12 of the 2022 NCAA college football season includes Big Ten battle between the Illinois Fighting Illini and No. 3 Michigan Wolverines.

Michigan is one of just four undefeated teams in FBS college football after a 34-3 win over Nebraska in another dominating defensive performance. The Wolverines have The Big Game with Ohio State on deck next week for the Big Ten East title and spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Illinois had run off six straight wins until back-to-back losses the last two games. That includes a 31-24 home loss to Purdue last week. Illinois is now in a 4-way tie at the top of the Big Ten West standings.

All NCAAF betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: ILL: (+680) | MICH: (-1100)
Spread: ILL: +17.5 (-110) | MICH: -17.5 (-110)
Total: 42.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Michigan enters this contest as a big favorite on the spread (-17.5) and moneyline (-1100). An upset win by Illinois returns +680 on the moneyline. The total is down a few points from Sunday’s opener, and now sits at 42.5 – which is more than 2 TD’s lower than an average over/under compared to other NCAA football games this week.

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This is Michigan’s last home game before the much anticipated Big Game at Ohio State next week to decide the Big Ten East champion and spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. A lookahead is certainly in order, and this is a big number to lay against an Illinois defense that was No. 1 in scoring defense and yards to start November.

The Illini defense is still allowing just 261 yards per game against FBS foes to rank No. 3 in the country behind No. 1 Michigan (232 YPG). The Illini defense is also allowing just 13.9 points per game (FBS) while Michigan’s scoring defense is No. 1 allowing 11.2 PPG.

Illinois RB Chase Brown leads the country in rushing with 1,442 yards. Check his status as he injured his leg late in last week’s loss, but is improving and should play. Just behind is Michigan RB Blake Corum (1,349) with 17 rushing touchdowns – second most in the nation. But the Illinois defense has allowed 100 rushing yards just twice this season, and the Wolverines strong, balanced attack will need QB JJ McCarthy to pass more and he’s 11th in the conference in passing yards (1,744). Oh, and Illinois has the No. 1 pass efficiency defense in the country, however CB Taz Nicholson dislocated his wrist last week and is out for the year.

The Wolverine defense has held 9-of-10 opponents to less than 300 yards total offense including six in a row. Michigan has also won their last 5 games by 21 or more points. That of course has impacted the betting line, along with Illinois’ two recent losses.

Final Score Prediction: Michigan: 23 | Illinois: 16

– Illinois is 6-2 straight up (SU) in their last 8 games.
– Illinois is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games vs Michigan.
– Illinois is 9-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 13 games.
– Illinois is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
– Michigan is 10-SU in their last 10 games.
– Michigan is 14-0 SU in their last 14 home games.
– Michigan is 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games.
– The total has gone Under in 8 of Michigan’s last 11 games.

All NCAAF betting lines, odds and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Michigan does have a large special teams edge, and both teams are +6 and +7 in turnover margin this season. But even with Michigan on an 11-1 ATS run as conference home chalk of 20 bridges or less, this line is too high given the Illini’s defensive profile and the low total. Combined with the situational scheduling spot and pressure building on Michigan staring straight ahead to Ohio State, and Illinois more attractive as well.

The awesome angle and 16-2-2 ATS situation from the Playbook Sports newsletter clinches the support on Illinois: Play against any 10-0 college football double-digit favorite in Game 11 if they are facing a .700 > opponent.

Bet: Illinois +17.5 (-110)

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