South Dakota State vs. Arkansas Odds
In one of the better matchups of Wednesday night — just due to the high-octane offenses — the Arkansas Razorbacks host the South Dakota State Jackrabbits.
Arkansas is coming off of a 26-point rout of Fordham last Friday, while South Dakota State battled with St. Bonaventure on Tuesday.
Arkansas has thrived on defense this season, turning over opponents 30.2% of the time while ranking fifth in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency.
South Dakota State has struggled mightily on the defensive end (201st), but this was pretty much the same story last season when it received a bid at the NCAA tournament.
The Jackrabbits’ forte is on offensive end, and they are nearly elite on that side of the ball. They do divide up their offensive scoring distribution reasonably, getting around 57% of their points on 2-pointers and over 20% from the strike and outside the arc.
Yes, the 3s are a bit lacking, but they can get to the line. Arkansas may turn opponents over consistently, but it ranks 44th in opponent 3-point percentage and 72nd in opponent 2-point percentage.
Arkansas also rarely shoots 3s. Only 12% of its offense comes from the perimeter, and it ranks 353rd in 3-point attempts-to-field goal attempts.
The Jackrabbits will negate the Razorbacks’ ability to force turnovers by hitting outside shots. This will provide them a boost to cover this number on the road.
South Dakota State has shown its ability to take a diverse array of shots on offense. It doesn’t just post up. It will kick out when necessary and has a decent mid-range game, as well, which is hard to find nowadays.
Here’s a look at how the Jackrabbits do it:
Photo by CBB Analytics
The Jackrabbits have the 102nd-ranked Adjusted Tempo. They tend to get crowded often, while Arkansas ranks 262nd in FTA/FGA. Look for the Jackrabbits to exploit this when given the opportunity.
One drawback of taking SDSU is its inability to crash the offensive glass (only a 10.9% offensive rebounding percentage). Arkansas only allows an offensive rebounding percentage of 22.2%, so the Jackrabbits will not manufacture many second chances.
Much of the Jackrabbits’ rebounding production comes from the guard position, so with no players over 6-foot-9, they need the frontcourt to crash the glass when provided a chance at it.
Now, Arkansas’ defense is clearly better than South Dakota State’s. This is a given going into this game.
However, the Razorbacks also have a tendency to give up a plethora of field goal attempts. This is concerning for a team that should out-rebound the Jackrabbits. If the ‘Rabbits cut into the rebounding margin, this game will be closer than most expect.
When facing a weak defensive team, it does not bode well for an offense to only look on the inside for points.
This gives SDSU a chance to settle into the key and give up the 3-point looks, especially with Arkansas only shooting 23% from deep.
Expect this to be the case, as Arkansas should score the bulk of its points out in transition.
Photo from CBB Analytics
Trevon Brazile is one name to watch who could be a difference-maker for the Razorbacks.
If SDSU clogs the lane, this will prevent his effectiveness, but the Jackrabbits might need to double team him, given the height discrepancy between the teams:
Promising Arkansas debut for 6-foot-10 + 19-year-old Trevon Brazile (Mizzou transfer), notching a 21-point, 12-rebound double-double while showing off his explosive rim running ability, enticing fluidity and perimeter touch- converting on 3 of his 6 three-point attempts. pic.twitter.com/45fAa0FGHr
—League Him (@League_Him) November 8, 2022
He may have some trouble with Matt Dentlinger on the block, so this is an intriguing matchup within the matchup.
South Dakota State’s spacing became an issue for Boise State, which had a similar offensive profile to Arkansas (an emphasis on inside shots).
Look for multiple plays to stretch the Razorbacks’ defense, which helped the Jackrabbits finish off the Broncos:
South Dakota State vs. Arkansas Betting Pick
Arkansas is the better team here and will win due to its fantastic defense.
That said, South Dakota State is no slouch on offense. The Jackrabbits are ranked 65th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (KenPom) for a reason.
If the Jackrabbits can hit some outside shots and distribute the ball well, they should be in good shape. This will allow them to cover the 14-point spread. Take this to +13 (-110).
Pick: South Dakota State +14 (-110) | Play to +13 (-110)
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