Northwestern vs. Georgetown Odds
Patrick Ewing and the Georgetown Hoyas’ coaching staff hit the transfer portal hard this past offseason, adding Primo Spears (Duquesne), Brandon Murray (LSU), Qudus Wahab (Maryland), Bryson Mozone (South Carolina Upstate), Akok Akok (UConn) , Jay Heath (Arizona State) and Wayne Bristol Jr. (Howard) as immediate impact players.
Northwestern added Tydus Verhoeven from UTEP, but everyone else has returned or come in as a freshman.
There’s a reason these two are aligning in the Gavitt Games this year.
Georgetown, a once-storied college basketball team, has fallen to the wayside after going 0-19 in Big East play last year.
Northwestern has remained stagnant amongst the bottom of the Big Ten. The Wildcats will battle with some teams at times, but luckily, this year, they return a solid core of experienced players. They lost Ryan Young to Duke, but Boo Buie, Robbie Beran, Ty Berry and Chase Audige are back to the lead the offense.
Georgetown opened the season with an OT victory against Coppin State before winning its second game in easier fashion vs. Green Bay.
Northwestern beat Chicago State and Northern Illinois handily in its first two outings.
This will be the Wildcats’ first true test, and it looks like a tight game based on the spread. However, Northwestern has a team used to Chris Collins’ coaching system.
Georgetown may be talented overall, but it’s a little hectic at times. This early in the season — even if it’s on the road — backing the team that has played together is the right call.
Northwestern should win in a close one.
The Wildcats currently rank 68th, according to KenPom. This puts them at third-to-last in the Big Ten, but this does not tell the entire story.
Buie and Audige have now been together a while. Northwestern doesn’t have the best recruiting class, but Luke Hunger will ease into the program, especially when Beran graduates.
The killer bees in Beran, Buie and Berry are all shooting at least 35% from deep this season. The Wildcats are shooting a collective 34.9% from deep — which is not the best — but these three will have multiple opportunities.
Georgetown is allowing opponents (Coppin State and Green Bay) to shoot 35.5% from 3-point range this season. Considering that both of these above teams shoot a ton of 3s and are not particularly strong in that area, it does not bode well for Ewing’s Hoyas against a Power Five opponent.
Here’s an example of a simple perimeter screen for Buie, which could do insurmountable damage to the Georgetown 3-point defense:
In contrast to Georgetown, NU is holding opponents to the ninth-best eFG% in the NCAA.
Georgetown’s bread and butter is its offence. It ranks 63rd in Offensive Efficiency versus 154th in Defensive Efficiency. If the ‘Cats are able to restrict the Hoyas in the key — where they held Chicago State and Northern Illinois to a combined 31.8% on 2-pointers — Northwestern will thrive.
On the other hand, Georgetown will likely get Heath back for his Hoyas debut. Dante Harris is still questionable.
Georgetown definitely has the weapons on the offensive end. It crashes the glass 40.8% of the time offensively, and it’s shooting 46.9% from deep.
The problem is, however, that the Hoyas have obtained 59.7% of their points over 2s, which the ‘Cats guard extremely well.
Here’s an example of how often the Hoyas experienced a broken play on offense against Coppin State and forced up a poor shot inside the arc:
In addition, Georgetown struggles with fouling on defense at times. Northwestern has manufactured 25% of its points on offense from the free-throw line, which is a horrid combination.
Lastly, Georgetown turned the ball over against two lesser opponents a combined 19% of the time. Northwestern should feast on this, especially if Georgetown is not sticking to a reasonable offensive scheme.
Northwestern vs. Georgetown Betting Pick
Northwestern is the most experienced and disciplined team. In a tight game like this, no matter how much more talented the other team may seem, go with the guys who have played together longer.
Even if Heath is back for the Hoyas, a transfer-heavy team will not have a strong start in the early going of the season.
Take Northwestern and its defense at -1.5 (-110). Play it to -3 (-110).
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