College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 6 top 25 games

College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 6 top 25 games

The much-anticipated matchup between No. 1 Alabama and Texas A&M is in prime time in Week 6.

It’s just not the best matchup on the schedule. Three games between ranked teams, including No. 17 TCU at No. 19 Kansas in a battle of Big 12 unbeatens, have upstaged the Crimson Tide-Aggies matchup.

The only matchup between SEC ranked teams is at 12 p.m. ET. No. 7 Tennessee travels to No. 25 LSU for a huge game that precedes the Volunteers’ shot at the Crimson Tide. No. 18 UCLA, another surprise unbeaten team, faces No. 12 Utah at 3:30 pm on FOX.

MORE: CFP picture after Week 5 | bowl projections

It’s another chance to improve our record against the spread for the 2022 college football season. Here is a look at our track record so far.

  • Straight up: 81-19, .810 (14-5 last week)
  • TTY: 53-45-2, .540 (9-10 last week)

Updated odds on Caesars sportsbook.

Here are our Week 5 predictions again the spread:

Week 6 picks against the spread

  • No. 4 Michigan (-21.5) at Indiana (12 p.m., FOX)

The Wolverines average margin of victory in Big Ten play is 10 points per game, and Indiana is coming off a pair of brutal road losses to Cincinnati and Nebraska. This is an all-in game for the Hoosiers, whose inability to run the football (105.2 yards per game) catches up in the second half. The back-door cover still is very much in play.

Pick: Michigan wins 37-16 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • No. 8 Tennessee (-3.5) at No. 25 LSU (12 p.m., ESPN)

This is the SEC test for the Vols, who rank second in the FBS with 48.5 points per game. LSU has won the last five meetings, and the Tigers have improved since the season-opening loss to Florida State. LSU has forced 2.4 turnovers per game, but Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker does not turn the ball over. Tennessee survives Death Valley and earns its shot at the Crimson Tide. That hook is a little scary.

Pick: Tennessee wins 35-27 and COVERS the spread.

MORE Week 5 overreactions | Candidates at Wisconsin

  • No. 17 TCU (-6) at No. 19 Kansas (12 p.m., FS1)

How will the Jayhawks handle the GameDay spotlight? TCU’s Max Duggan (11 TDs, 0 INTs) and Kansas’ Jalon Daniels (11 TDs, 1 INTs) are two of the most-exciting quarterbacks in the Big 12, and that could lead to a wild affair in Lawrence. Enjoy the show. The Horned Frogs come up with the clutch stop in a thriller.

Pick: TCU wins 34-27 and COVERS the spread.

  • Arkansas at No. 23 Mississippi State (-5.5) (12 p.m., SEC Network)

How will the Razorbacks respond after deflating losses to Texas A&M and Alabama? How will the defense respond against Will Rogers, who is tied for the FBS lead with 19 TD passes? Arkansas has won the last two meetings, but they were one-score games. Can the Bulldogs slow down the Arkansas running game?

Pick: Mississippi State wins 31-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • South Florida at No. 24 Cincinnati (-27.5) (2:30 p.m., ESPN+)

The Bulls are 1-3 ATS, and they did cover against Florida in Week 3. The Bearcats have won the last four meetings by an average of 13.3 points per game, but none have been the full-fledged blowouts. The Bearcats will control the game at home behind a running game led by Charles McClelland and Corey Kiner, but that is a lot of points against a defense that allows 20.5 points per game.

Pick: Cincinnati wins 42-17 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • Auburn at No. 2 Georgia (-29.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

The Bryan Harsin watch continues at Auburn, and the Tigers are not a threat to beat Georgia on the road. The Bulldogs, however, have failed to cover large spreads the last two weeks against Kent State and Missouri. Looks for Georgia to clean up the turnovers after committing five the last two weeks. Auburn is 2-2 ATS with a pair of victories as a road underdog under Harsin. They won’t get the win, but a cover is negotiable.

Pick: Georgia wins 41-13 and FAIL TO COVER the spread.

  • Texas Tech at No. 7 Oklahoma State (-10) (3:30 p.m., FS1)

The Cowboys are rolling into College Football Playoff contention, and they have a chance to be one of two unbeatens along with the Kansas-TCU winner. The Red Raiders have failed to cover in their last two road losses at NC State and Kansas State. This will be even tougher.

Pick: Oklahoma State wins 34-20 and COVERS the spread.

  • No. 12 Utah (-3.5) at No. 18 UCLA (3:30 p.m., FOX)

UCLA has another chance to knock off a Pac-12 contender, but this won’t be easy. The Utes have been on a mission since the season-opening loss at Florida. UCLA averages 41.4 points per game, but they are up against the top defense in the Pac-12 (14.4 ppg.). The Utes also have averaged 46.8 points per game in the last five meetings against the Bruins. They would have no problem in a shootout.

Pick: Utah wins 38-28 and COVERS the spread.

  • No. 3 Ohio State (-25.5) at Michigan State (4 p.m., ABC)

On the surface the line looks high, until you consider that the Buckeyes have beat the Spartans by an average of 35.6 points per game in the last five meetings. Michigan State has allowed an average of 500 yards of offense in its last three losses. How are they going to slow down Ohio State? That is a lot of points to lay for the Buckeyes’ first road game, but it’s also a chance to make another statement about who should be No. 1.

Pick: Ohio State wins 45-17 and COVERS the spread.

  • No. 9 Ole Miss (-19) at Vanderbilt (4 p.m. SEC Network)

Ole Miss stayed unbeaten with a thrilling victory against Kentucky, and the Commodores have struggled against the run (158.0 yards per game). Vanderbilt kept it reasonably close in a 31-17 loss to the Rebels last year, but this will be tougher against that relentless running game. The Commodores are 7-6 ATS as an underdog under Clark Lea, but that record drops to 2-4 ATS at home.

Pick: Ole Miss wins 38-17 and COVERS the spread.

  • No. 21 Washington (-13) at Arizona State (4 p.m., Pac-12 Network)

Washington is coming off a reality check loss to UCLA, and Arizona State is coming off back-to-back games against Utah and USC since the Herm Edwards firing. The Huskies haven’t won at Arizona State since 2001. Is that enough to keep faith in the underdog here? The Huskies average 364 passing yards per game, and the Sun Devils will have too many breakdowns in coverage to pull the upset.

Pick: Washington wins 38-28 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • No. 5 Clemson (-20) at Boston College (7:30 p.m., ABC)

Is there a chance for a small hangover for the Tigers after back-to-back emotional victories against Wake Forest and NC State? The last two matchups with Boston College have been decided by six points each, and the Eagles are a better team at home.

Pick: Clemson wins 34-16 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • Washington State at No. 6 USC (-11.5) (7:30 p.m., FOX)

This is a fun quarterback matchup between Caleb Williams and Cameron Ward, but the Cougars lack a consistent running game (91.8 yards per game). That will make it more difficult to slow down USC at home. Washington State is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and the Trojans still had some questions of their own on defense. USC wins, but Washington State hangs around. The over (61) looks good here.

Pick: USC wins 38-30 and FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • South Carolina at No. 13 Kentucky (-10.5) (7:30 p.m., SEC Network)

Kentucky is coming off a disappointing loss at Ole Miss, and now they have to recalibrate for a visit from South Carolina. The Wildcats won 16-10 last year. The Gamecocks, however, are 1-4 ATS as a road underdog under Shane Beamer. This is a tough call, but the Wildcats bounce back with Will Levis and Chris Rodriguez Jr. leading the way.

Pick: Kentucky wins 31-20 and COVERS the spread.

  • Army at No. 15 Wake Forest (-15.5) (7:30 p.m., ESPN+)

This game was wild last year. The Demon Deacons won 70-56 in a game that had 1,233 yards of total offense. This year, Army allows 30 points per game and has struggled with turnovers. Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS this season, but the defense has been suspect at times. This one plays close to the line.

Pick: Wake Forest wins 38-21 and COVERS the spread.

  • No. 16 BYU vs. Notre Dame (-3) (7:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock)

The Cougars and Irish meet at Allegiant Stadium, of all places, and this a showcase game for BYU quarterback Jaren Hall – who averages 301.2 yards of total offense per game. The Irish had the bye week to prepare, and Drew Pyne has completed 69.8% of his passes. This line is right on target, so keep an eye on whether it ticks up a half-point in either direction.

Pick: Notre Dame wins 28-24 and COVERS the spread.

  • No. 25 Kansas State (-2) at Iowa State (7:30 p.m., ESPNU)

Chris Klieman is 1-2 against Iowa State, but the Wildcats have managed three wins in their last five trips to Jack Trice Stadium. Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn combine to average 221.4 rushing yards per game. The Cyclones have the best run defense in the Big 12 at 83.0 yards per game. That’s where this game will be won. Iowa State is 11-2 ATS as a home underdog under Matt Campbell with four S/U victories. This could be wild.

Pick: Kansas State wins 30-27 and COVERS the spread.

  • Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama (-24.5) (8 p.m., CBS)

Yes, this game will have a lot of hype in the “SEC on CBS” spotlight, especially with the attention to Bryce Young’s AC joint injury. That makes it tough to bet on this game. The Aggies have lost their last four trips to Bryant-Denny Stadium by an average of 32.8 points per game. That’s a lot of points, especially if Young plays but is not 100%. Alabama wins, but it’s not a full-fledged blowout. The Aggies are 3-5 ATS as a road underdog, but they are 0-8 S/U in those games.

Pick: Alabama wins 42-19 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

  • Florida State at No. 14 NC State (-3) (8 p.m., ACC Network)

Which team will bounce back after a tough ACC loss? The Wolfpack have the home-field advantage, but they will have to slow down a Florida State rushing attack that averages 203.8 yards per game. This could be a trendy defensive pick, but if it becomes a defensive game we’ll stick with NC State.

Pick: NC State wins 28-23 and COVERS the spread.

  • No. 11 Oregon (-12) at Arizona (9 p.m., Pac-12 Network)

The Ducks have covered each of the last four weeks, and they are averaging 50 points per game since the Week 1 loss to Georgia. The last two meetings with the Wildcats have not been closed either – with the Ducks winning by average of 25 points per game. Arizona has improved, but Oregon keeps rolling.

Pick: Oregon wins 38-24 and COVERS the spread.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *